"The Gatekeepers" - This was the one we didn't see. If my Jewish conspiracy theory about Hollywood is true, then this film will win due to its subject matter about the Israeli secret service. If it doesn't win then my theory has been disproved and that perhaps only movies about the Holocaust are shoe-ins.
"5 Broken Cameras" - A pretty good film about the Israeli occupation of the West Bank. A pro-Palestinian movie winning an Oscar?!? Bwaa haa haa! Don't make me laugh!
"How to Survive a Plague" - A very insightful film into the early days of the AIDS epidemic. Think about the era of Ronald Reagan and how AIDS was just a "gay disease." It especially focuses on ACT UP and how they brought attention to the epidemic.
"Searching for Sugar Man" - I think this has the best shot of winning. It's the story of the folk singer Rodriguez who cut a couple of albums here in the States back in the 70's which totally flopped. He became an underground star, however, in South Africa. The film is the story about a couple of fanboys who track him down and pull him from obscurity back into the spotlight.
"The Invisible War" - If "Sugar Man" doesn't win then I hope this film does. It's a somewhat hard to watch film about the disgraceful way our military treats cases of rape from within its own ranks. Think about reporting a rape to the police when it might be the cop that has raped you. It's a very dirty little secret.